Slightly more cohesive thoughts on 3D Printing in 2012

Following up on yesterday's rather rushed post, rushed because I was a woman on a mission, to complete my [long] to-do list for the day, and was fast running out of time. And I succumbed to the premise that anything is better than nothing. Apologies for that! Oddly enough, a touch of insomnia brought some much-needed time to just think and sift through the brain overload in order to gain some perspective. Notwithstanding, I feel a tad tired, but much calmer than the mad woman of yesterday!

And there was plenty to think about. The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) hosted in Las Vegas, USA for 2012, even before its doors open today, has got the year off to an explosive start. As I mentioned yesterday, 3D Systems is using this event as the platform for launching Cubify.com and introducing the consumer-targeted Cube 3D printer (of which more later). 

Makerbot's early 2012 announcement, introducing the Replicator 3D printer, was also revealed yesterday, and will be at this show. Makerbot has achieved extraordinary things since it launched just over two years ago — not least the following it has acquired, which is both brilliant and astonishing. Bre Pettis, who has actively lead the company since its inception, has instigated a very effective formula that combines technological know-how with successful engagement of his target market. The dividends speak for themselves. 

The new Replicator 3D printer takes the Makerbot offerings to the next level. It comes fully assembled, as a plug & play machine, with improved features such as a larger build area and "Dualstrusion", essentially the ability to print two materials within the same build. The price is $1999 or $1749 for the single extruder version. Although targeted at "personalised manufacturing" I don't think this price point is quite right for that yet, but I have already heard a multitude of converts say they want one! 

I imagine Makerbot's stand will be inundated later on today when CES opens its doors.

Another very interesting announcement came recently from Sculpteo. After nicely overhauling it's website for the start of the year, this 3D print company has launched a very neat new iphone app providing easy mobile access to 3d printable data. Accessibility to customisable, 3D printable data, which encapsulates and liberates one of the biggest selling points of 3D printing, namely the ability to print unique, personalised products quickly, easily and cheaply, is the way to grow. This is also what the Cubify.com platform is bringing with it. Easy access to 3D data for 3D printing. The little girl with the yellow shoes testifies to that! Cubify goes live about four hours from now (thanks Deelip!) and I imagine I won't be the only one testing it out today ;-) 

I do still see the Sculpteo-type business model as the main growth area for 3D printing within the consumer industry for the foreseeable future. Consumers, in the main, will be attracted to the ability to choose and customise their own products, and have a 3rd party print and send. We will have to wait a few months to see if the Cube or Replicator proves me wrong — or indeed, any of the others! 

In terms of unit sales of 3D printers, I am sure they will continue to grow also. For now though, I see the greatest target markets for these as SME's and educational institutions. Getting the design tools and 3D printers into classrooms across the board, is, I am convinced, the surest way of growing the market in the longer term, whilst exciting future generations of designers and engineers and growing these skill bases once again. Moreover, as I have said before, if children grow up comfortable with these technologies in the classroom, they will be confident when it comes to having one in their home! And that's the ultimate goal, isn't it? 

A Perfect Storm is Required for 3D Printing to go Mainstream - The Wind is Picking Up

Ok, so we have been here before, many times. Talking about what needs to happen for 3D Printing to "go viral" to use the term that is currently on trend. 

And before you question this post going over old ground, I'll tell you why I am cogitating on this. It seems the debate has subtly moved on from the "will it/won't it happen" discourse, where two clearly and strongly argued points of view were professed. Essentially, the "Aye's" seem to have it, because the general assumption now is that it will happen, but the debate centres around how and when. It is the 'how' question that throws up many different angles, which all need to come together at the same time to create the 'perfect storm' referenced in the title of this post.

Also, it should be noted, there are still a number of full-on dissenters out there, but their voices are receding and they are in a minority. 

So on to how and when. 

How will 3D printing penetrate everyday life? Many of the machine vendors and their allies are still pushing for '3D Printers in every home'. Obviously they have an ulterior motive here, because if/when demand like this does materialise, volumes of sales and their bottom lines will shoot through the roof. Realistically, IMHO, I think that 3D printers in many homes is entirely feasible (it will never be every home) — but this is no where near imminent. I think that I have said it here before, it probably will not happen in my lifetime. 

Before it can happen though, people have to want it, they have to understand it, and, more importantly, they have to want to understand it because they believe that they "need" it. Beyond the 3D printing itself, we really do have to take a step back — in the process that is. How many people, in general, can design in 3D? Proportionally, very few indeed. Based on the fact that 3D designs are the prerequisite for any 3D printer; education and ‘desire’ has to start here. Until there is a profusion of 3D designs, for which the designers (for designers read anyone) require an output, things will not move forward any quicker than they are now. As an analogy think about computers and 2D printers. 30-40 years ago computers were emerging as workplace tools for a few companies, the numbers increasing exponentially with time. Moreover, 2D printers did not become "must have's" until computers did. As the number of people that were familiar with computers and different software programmes in their workplace grew, this was mirrored by the uptake of computers — and printers — for personal use. I don’t know the precise figures, but I imagine the recreational use of computers is at least as great as their commercial use today. I believe a similar path will be traversed with 3D printing. But until lots of people can — and want to — design and create in 3D there will be absolutely no requirement for 3D printers in large volumes.

But that still leaves us with the philosophy of the killer app [Post of 18/1/10] — the first application of 3D printing that provides the reason to want to have it locally. New applications seem to push out a little further into mainstream consciousness each time, but nothing has emerged to date that has blown it out of the water. 

There is a growing argument, one that I back 100%, that the best way to get 3D printing into the mainstream is to start with schools. Get 3D design software and 3D printers into every school and college. The kids will eagerly learn to understand it, they will subsequently want it and one of them will probably come up with the killer app to finally bring on the perfect storm.

However.

There is also another school of thought, the other side of the 'how' debate, which advocates the internet as the medium by which 3D printed objects will become mainstream — my old boss is on this side of the argument, and I am sure he won't mind me quoting him! You can have it in his own words, rather than me paraphrasing.

Duncan Wood, Rapid News Communications: 

"I think that the idea of a printer in every home is never going to happen ....... What I think will happen is that every home will have access to 3DP/AM via the online space, just as soon as every home gets the internet, then we'll see an explosion in 3D printing use. Choosing unique customised parts, gifts and designs will be the way people access it, choosing from the range of technologies available, not just the cheapest one they can afford to purchase out of their own pocket." 

Now, I don't dispute this as a growing and potentially huge application for 3D Printing, particularly if you take this a step further and consider the additional possibilities offered by replacement products and parts (eg dishwasher parts, kettles, toasters and so on). But, IMO, this will be an interim measure, a solution that will grow in it’s own right as a precursor to the perfect storm when 3D printers will become a common commodity.